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Statistical Model for Crop Estimation
  1. There are 1240 overlapping sample villages in all over the Punjab for coverage of all major and minor crops including fruits and vegetables (the sample size is about 5% of total No. of villages in the Punjab i.e.26093)
  2. 1st crop inspection (Girdawari work) is carried out with effect from 1st January to 20th January. Just after completion of sowing of crop. On the basis of the survey, the first estimate showing wheat acreage sown arrived at and released for users on first February.
  3. The 2nd crop inspection (Girdawari work) is conducted w.e.f. 15th February to 5th March recording crop by varieties covering Zaid Rabi crops as well.
  4. The second estimate of crop, based on crop inspection conducted and field observation on inputs and condition of the crop, is released on 1st April indicated expected production.
  5. The wheat crop frame (list of all wheat growing fields) is prepared in every sample villages by 31st March.
  6. Three sample wheat field are selected randomly from each sample village for actual harvest (1st week of April) to control the variation within the villages.
  7. Two experimental plots of 20’ x 15’ (Sq.ft) are randomly located and demarcated according to set instruction to control variation within field on maturity of crop.
  8. Actual harvesting is done by Crop Reporting, staff in association of the growers.(normally 15th April to 15th of May )
  9. Average yield/acre is worked out on the basis of actual produce from the experimental plots after deducting 7% driage, border effect etc.
  10. Final estimate is released on 1st August after clearance by Punjab Agricultural Statistics Coordination Board(P.A.S.C.B)
The above process is applied on all other major and important minor crops in both kharif and rabi season according to crop schedule / calendar
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